The change in trend is confirmed in Catalonia, where the virus has accelerated its spread with a transmission speed (Rt) that is already 0.99 , another four hundredths more than yesterday, while experts warn that the restrictions must be maintained to avoid a fourth wave, something that, as recognized yesterday by the ‘councilor’ of Salut, Alba Vergés, “would be dramatic.” The number of people admitted goes down, but the critics rise.
The data from the Department of Health have revealed another increase in Rt Tuesday, which adds, as yesterday, the risk of regrowth (EPG), which measures the potential growth rate of the epidemic and has also climbed two points and has been placed in 268 (three points more).
According to these updated epidemiological data, 1,482 more infections have been registered today than the day before and, thus, since the start of the pandemic in Catalonia, 548,589 people have already been infected.
In addition, six people have died from the virus in the last 24 hours , with which covid-19 has already claimed the lives of 20,512 Catalans since March. As for people admitted with coronavirus, there are 1,973 (56 less than on Monday), of which 593 are seriously ill in the ICU, five more than yesterday.
The experts from the Polytechnic University of Catalonia (UPC) who analyze the data of the pandemic on a daily basis and its evolution, the Biocomsc group , warned yesterday that the rate of decline of patients in critical units “is in the worst band of the forecasts and down at a rate of just a little under 10% weekly. “
An ICU covid from Vall d’Hebron, this Monday.
The toilets cross their fingers in the face of a very aggressive fourth wave.According to these researchers, the decrease in the ucis of Catalan hospitals has dropped only 20% in the last three weeks, which “not by expected ceases to be bad news.”
The problem of variants
Another indicator that the epidemic is worsening again is positivity, that is, the percentage of PCRs and antigen tests that are positive, which has risen to 5.43%, above the 5% that the WHO establishes to consider controllable pandemic .
According to epidemiologists, the rapid rise in the spread of the virus could be due to several reasons, the main of which would be the spread of the most contagious variants , but also to the fact that it is nine days after election day and 15 when they were reopened gyms and the hours of bars and restaurants were extended by one hour.
Another factor to take into account, according to epidemiologists, is the social relaxation of precautions in the face of so many weeks of restrictions and the drop in temperatures, which promote greater transmission due to doing activities indoors.
By region, the one with the worst rebound risk today is Vall d’Aran , with an EPG of 1,887, -it continues to worsen- followed by Solsonès (1,172), Pla d’Urgell (790), La Cerdanya (759) , Osona (663), Alta Ribagorça (626), Garrotxa (610), while there are only four regions below 100 -high-risk threshold-, Priorat (44), Berguedà (59), Pallars Jussà (77) and Alt Urgell (98), all with moderate risk.
Barcelonès, the most densely populated region in Catalonia, presents an EPG of 289, one more point, the contagion speed (Rt) is 0.98, three hundredths more.
Regarding the municipalities, the one that today presents the highest risk of potential expansion of the pandemic (EPG) is Mollerussa (1,352), followed by Canet de Mar (935), Sant Adrià de Besòs (730), Olot (630), Esparreguera (534), Vic (517) and Montcada i Reixac (502)
Below 100 -which is the high risk threshold- are Vilafant (52), Tarragona (69), Cambrils (69), El Vendrell (76), Sant Feliu de Llobregat (80), Lloret de Mar (81) and Pineda de Mar (91).
In the city of Barcelona, the EPG is 272 today, the same as yesterday, and the speed of spread of the virus is 0.97, two hundredths more than the day before.